Soccer Betting Lines
January 28, 2017
Is a play with value typically a play with odds more than 3.5 or so? No, a play can be a value of soccer betting with odds of just 1.30, or 1.20. It all depends on what you think is the team’s chance of winning the game. If you think a team has got 50 % chance of winning the game, soccer betting lines above 2.0 represents value. If you think the team has only got a 40% chance, it’s no longer one of the soccer betting value bets (with odds = 2/1, +200, etc.). Objects with good value are objects which will give you a positive payoff over time. So if Manchester United has got odds of 5/1 for a win at Liverpool, it is a soccer betting value bet if you think Manchester United will win more than 1 out of 5 similar games. This is the formula for finding a given play’s value of soccer betting lines: ODDS * Percentage >= 1.0 (The percentage is your subjective opinion on the object’s chance of winning the event).
If the result of the above calculation is a number greater than 1.0 the bet is a value bet. If it’s below 1.0 it’s not a value bet. But it can, however, still be a good bet.
Big favorites are rarely good teams for finding value in soccer betting lines due to the bookmakers’ fear of large payouts when the favorites win. Big name teams like Paris Saint Germain, Chelsea, Barcelona, Bayern Munich or Real Madrid are rarely given good prices by the bookies, because the bookies know that the common punter bets on the big names (as they often seem to win their games, and they have a huge following).
As a result of the above, real online soccer betting value is often found in the form of underdogs. The bookies know that punters are more likely to bet on favorites, therefore, prices are generally higher on underdogs.
Do not alter your strategy if you lose several times in a row. The point is that when you win on soccer betting, your net winnings will outweigh your total losses.
Value betting could be a good strategy in the beginning and the end of a season. Results are often more unpredictable in the first and last quarter of the season, and punters should perhaps make use of this “fact” by adopting to the value of soccer betting strategy during early autumn and late spring.