Best Sports Betting Strategies
June 1, 2021
During the dark days of 2020, all professional and collegiate sports leagues ceased playing. That didn’t stop America’s love affair with sports gambling.
The state of Colorado saw its residents bet $8.8 million in March 2020 on Russian table tennis. The pandemic proved, without a doubt, that Americans love to bet on sports almost as much as they love to watch sports.
Sports betting is fun, but it’s more fun to win. To win consistently, you need the Best Sports Betting Strategies.
Are you ready to learn about how to become a winning sports gambler? Read on to learn more about the most profitable betting strategies.
Fade the Public
Did you know New Jersey’s sportsbooks brought in an estimated $389.5 million in revenue during 2020? That incredible number reflects our country’s love of betting, but there’s another story hidden in those statistics.
That amount of revenue means many New Jersey residents lost a lot of money. Casinos and sportsbooks don’t make money unless gamblers lose.
Keeping that in mind, one of the best betting strategies is to fade the public.
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Why Fading the Public Works
There are only a select few sports gamblers in the world who win enough to profit throughout the year. There are even fewer who can turn sports gambling into a profession.
These gamblers are known as “sharps.” Sharps are professional gamblers who have a keen eye for numbers and games. They are the most educated and most savvy sports bettors in any market.
They represent a small portion of the sports gambling public. The rest are squares. Squares bet for fun, and though they hope to win, they often do not.
This strategy works because it’s a bet against the square consensus. Given that sportsbooks make so much money, it’s a good bet that the public is wrong.
How Fading the Public Works
No matter which strategy you choose, using the best betting strategies requires research. To successfully fade the public, you need to dig through commercial gambling statistics.
You can find public betting information on any number of websites and news outlets. If you see a side getting 70% or above of the wagers, place a bet on the other side.
A Word of Warning
Years ago, learning how to fade the public was akin to finding the best strategies. These days, the amount of information available to all gamblers makes fading more challenging.
While it can still be an effective sports gambling tool, sportsbooks these days produce incredibly tight lines. You’ll have to do more research to win bets using this strategy.
Learn How to Handicap
No matter what betting strategy you use, you have to learn how to handicap games. What is handicapping? It’s how gamblers and bookies alike evaluate all the variables and formulate a line.
Sounds simple, right? You’d think anyone who is a serious fan of any particular sport could handicap a game in their sleep. The truth is, successful handicapping requires an incredible amount of research.
The other important truth? You cannot employ another betting strategy without sharp handicapping skills. Let’s discuss the basics.
Key Injuries/Depth Chart
The Alabama Crimson Tide plays the Miami Hurricanes in a week one non-conference showdown. You know Alabama’s stellar reputation as they are the previous season’s national champion.
Miami’s previous season was a disaster, and in your mind, that makes Alabama an easy two-touchdown favorite. A deeper dive reveals a different story.
Alabama’s 5-star sophomore running back pulled his hamstring and is out for the first four weeks of the season. Meanwhile, Miami’s new head coach, known for his fierce defenses, crushed the recruiting trail in the offseason.
Given Alabama’s injury at a vital offensive position and Miami’s rebuilt defense, you adjust your line. You think Alabama will win but might struggle to win by more than 14.
Too many novice gamblers ignore the advantage playing at home can bring to a team.
Many times there are huge discrepancies between a team’s home and away record, and you have to explore those splits when handicapping. Alabama vs. Miami will play in Tuscaloosa.
Over the last five seasons, Alabama lost only one game at home. They have a huge advantage playing at home. Knowing this bumps your number back up to 14.5 despite Alabama’s injuries.
Games played outdoors are subject to the weather. Take baseball as an example. A simple shift in the wind’s direction could be the difference between a grand slam and an inning-ending fly ball.
Exploring weather is a vital part of handicapping. When you research the weather for the Alabama game, you see there is a 70% chance of rain in the Tuscaloosa area.
Alabama plays on turf, so you don’t have to worry about a muddy field. The track will be slower, and heavy rain will neutralize Alabama’s passing attack. They’ll have to keep the ball on the ground with a backup running back.
These conditions favor the Miami defense, and you believe they do enough to keep the game close. After all your research, you calculate the correct spread for the game is Alabama -10.5.
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Modern sportsbooks and casinos keep their lines super tight. The books always had an edge. With all the information available, sports gambling is now an arm’s race.
The small margins are why your eyes and brain are so important. Half a point could be the difference between a winning or losing bet.
Even though lines are tight everywhere, betting lines are not all equal. Depending on the money wagered and the algorithms used by a particular book, you will see different lines posted.
These line differences are why you need the best betting strategies.
How to Line Shop
Line shopping is a betting strategy that goes hand in hand with your handicapping skills. You place a number value on a game, and you try to find a book that offers a winning line, given your assessment.
The weather, injuries, and home-field advantage lead you to believe the appropriate spread for Alabama vs. Miami is -10.5. Now, you have to find sportsbooks that offer that number or less.
Sportsbook A lists Alabama -11.5. Sportsbook B lists Alabama at -10. Because you believe Alabama will win by more than 10.5 points, you place your bet with Sportsbook B.
What Complicates Line Shopping
To line shop, you have to understand how and why the lines move. Sportsbooks release lines at a number meant to encourage an equal amount of money bet on both sides.
Sportsbook B releases Alabama -10. As the week progresses, you notice the majority of the bets coming in are on Alabama. The line should move up as the sportsbook wants to balance its money.
Despite the number of tickets placed in Alabama’s favor, the line drops to -8.5. At the same time, you see the lines plummet at all of the other sportsbooks.
What does this mean? The sharps came in and laid big money on Miami at +10 and caused reverse line movement.
What does that mean for you? More than likely, your handicapping is off. If the pros pick against you, you’re in trouble. Your line shopping is only as good as your handicapping.
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Chase the Steam
Chasing steam involves following the smart money. Why wouldn’t you want to do that? Smart money is where you win! To employ this strategy, you have to know how to spot the action and take advantage.
Why Chasing Steam Works
Chasing steam is a combination of line shopping and public fading. It works better than strict plays against the public because you’re not relying on the betting whims of an uneducated public.
Also, thanks to the tight lines, there are many occasions where the public picks correctly. If you can match sharp moves rather than fight upstream against the public, you can win more money.
How Chasing Steam Works
This betting strategy relies on you paying attention to line movement and acting fast to match it. For example, Sportsbook B has Alabama at -10, and the line stays consistent for most of the week.
Then you notice Friday the line drops in one move to Alabama -8.5. That means a sharp or group of sharps came in and bet Miami +10. You chase steam by finding another book with Miami at +10 to match the play.
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Words of Caution
Sharps are sharps for a reason, and they have huge bankrolls. You might see a lot of sharp action come in on a side, and think it’s a smart move to chase that steam in another book.
That’s not always the case. Big-time gamblers with huge bankrolls know squares will follow their moves. They’ll place big bets on a side at Sportsbook A to force public betting at another book.
This play helps them get the number they want and could mean a loss for you.
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The Best Sports Betting Strategies Help You Win
Americans love betting on sports, and laying some action on Sunday afternoon is a way to make the games more exciting. It’s even more exciting if you win.
Too many people think sports betting is a random exercise, and those people are losing gamblers. To win, you need the best sports betting strategies. Use these strategies and grow your bankroll.
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