The Most Profitable Sports Betting Strategy (Ever!)
August 8, 2021
Gambling. It is the thrill of winning, bragging rights, and feeling like you are a little smarter in some cases. For sports, it can make a game more exciting, give you a rooting interest, and is an opportunity to make money off of your sports knowledge.
However, actually making a profit in sports betting is not as easy as you think. Even the best professional sports bettors only win about 55% of the time.
With the margin so narrow, it is important to have a good sports betting strategy to make sure you avoid the red.
Betting for fun and betting for money are two completely different things, and you will feel that in your wallet without the right strategy.
But, what is a good strategy? What moves can you make to assure you end up with a profit from your bets?
These are the best tips to make sure you come out a winner.
Avoid the Popular Teams
This is a sneaky way to get around bookies, particularly on the college level. Let’s use college football as an example.
Alabama is arguably the best school in the country and has a big national following because of it. They have eyeballs on them every week, and odds on their games will reflect that.
Bookies will know that team better than say, Bowling Green. Thus, the lines will be more accurate. So, if Alabama is favored by six points against LSU, that means the game result is probably going to be within a point of that.
In contrast, a game between Bowling Green and Kent State may not have an accurate line. How many people outside of Ohio are really watching that game?
Fans are not paying attention, and bookies are also very unlikely to have as sharp of an eye on two less popular and successful football programs like these. So, you could get say a -10 line when it should be around -14.
There is more breathing room with games that people do not have their eyes on, and the sharp bettors prey on that.
So, as much fun as being one person to contribute about $500 million in bets total on the Super Bowl could be, it is not the best way to make a profit. Instead, look for teams like Bowling Green.
Pass On the Parlays
This is one of the most popular types of bets that the general public likes to make on sports. And…. it is honestly a very stupid one because parlays require you to win every single individual bet grouped together in a large bet in order to make ANY money.
It is almost like trying to win the lottery in extreme cases. People see the big amount of money that they can possibly win if the bet goes through, but they do not think about the odds of actually winning that bet.
The truth is, this is something that sportsbooks prey on. They draw the average bettor in by turning $25 into say $1,000. It can be a lot more in some cases like $100 to $25,000!
The problem is, you need to go undefeated in the small bets you group together into this large bet. So, let’s say you try to have a 6-team parlay. You would have to go 6-0 rather than 3-3 or 4-2 to make a profit.
The odds of you winning the bet drop from a starting point of around 50% all the way down to about 1.6%. Worst of all, you do not get paid out like the 63/1 odds percentage that is. Most sportsbooks would pay out about 40/1 odds for a 6-team parlay win.
So, not only is this an unlikely win, but you are also giving sportsbooks quite a cut even if you come out ahead. If you are that confident in six teams, just bet them separately and give yourself more room for error in case one loses, since most pros even only go 55%.
Know Your Area
In the United States, it is only legal to sports bet in about 20 states. Canada is still fighting to allow single-game betting.
This is why it is important to know the area you are betting in, especially if you specialize in one niche. In New Jersey, for example, you cannot bet on college teams from the state or games going on in the state.
That may be a huge blow to a gambler on college sports that is trying to gain an edge on smaller schools. With the advice so far above, it would be a non-starter for a Canadian to bet on sports successfully in Canada without the ability to bet on single games.
Your area will not always be a factor in how you do in betting, but you better make sure you double-check your area’s laws on sports betting before you make a commitment to it.
Stick to Your Unit
For those of you newer to betting, a unit is an average bet you would make on a game as a percentage of your bankroll. So, let’s say you typically place $100 down every time you make a bet.
That would be one unit, and it would be the right amount if you had say, a $10,000 bankroll. In the end, you want to bet about 1% of your bankroll per game.
The tip here is to stick to your specific unit structure. You have to ride it out whether you are on a hot streak or a cold streak because that is the way you will win in the long run.
If you go away from your unit plan, and bet say $300 if you think you can’t lose or try to get some losses back quickly, that can be a quick way to get yourself into a bigger hole.
Look at the numbers carefully and stick to the system, because that is how you will be able to profit off of going 55% for the year.
Bet the Middle
Another popular sport bet to make is trying to bet the middle. This is great for point spreads and over/under bets, and it allows sharp bettors to double-dip and makes twice the profit on one game.
This can be a key NBA sports betting strategy in particular. Let’s say the Nets and Knicks are playing each other.
The Nets start out as a 7-point favorite and you like the Knicks to cover that at +7. So now, you have the Knicks at +7 and you find out Kyrie Irving all of a sudden is not playing in the game that night.
Now, the Nets may go down to around a 3-point favorite. With Kyrie out, you notice a lot of bettors panicking about the Nets or favoring the Knicks a bit more, but you may still be confident the Nets can win the game without him.
This would be a great opportunity to double-dip on this game and bet the Nets at -3. This would greatly increase your chances of gaining money betting on this game.
In this scenario, you are guaranteed to at least come out close to even. But now, if the Nets win by less than three, you are making twice the profit that you would before.
Betting the middle during opportunities like that could be the difference between coming out close to even versus coming out of the year with a decent profit. Do not be afraid to strike while the iron is hot.
Finally, a big thing that sharp bettors like to do is shop for lines. This is when a bettor looks at multiple sportsbooks to see what lines they are putting out for the same game.
In the days before online sportsbooks took off, you used to be able to get great local game odds if you wished to bet against a team like the New York Giants in the New York area.
Now, sportsbooks are a lot more national, but deals can still be had if you look hard enough. Let’s say the Giants are playing the Cowboys in Dallas.
Most sportsbooks have the Cowboys favorite by a solid 3.5 points. But, you see one sportsbook that has the Cowboys at only a 2.5 favorite.
You obviously will want to use that sportsbook if you intend to bet on the Cowboys. Keeping your options open is key, because if the Cowboys win by three, then that is the only sportsbook you will make money on if you choose to back the Cowboys.
Master a Sports Betting Strategy
With the tips above, you will have a solid sports betting strategy to put some money in your pocket. But, what if you can use that knowledge to succeed on the other side of betting? Have you thought you had the sports knowledge to run a sportsbook but do not know how to get started?
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